MCS TYPE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE

The severe weather threat will increase today across the Ohio Valley and Midwest as organized thunderstorm clusters continue to develop and move along a stalled frontal boundary.

These storms could produce long corridors of damaging straight-line winds, along with torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, and some hail. As the thunderstorm complexes organize and accelerate eastward, there remains a possibility that one could become a derecho, particularly from tonight into Tuesday. While that outcome is not guaranteed, the atmospheric setup is favorable enough that the potential deserves close attention.

Additional wind-producing thunderstorm complexes could develop Tuesday across portions of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes, with some of these storms potentially tracking southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Damaging winds would be the primary concern, although hail, frequent lightning, and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms.

Heavy rainfall is another major concern. Repeated thunderstorms moving across the same areas could produce substantial rainfall totals, particularly across West Virginia and portions of the Ohio Valley. This could result in rapid rises on streams and creeks, urban flooding, and potentially significant flash flooding.

With multiple rounds of storms expected, residents across the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Carolinas should be prepared for rapidly changing conditions over the next couple of days.

Primary threats include:

• Widespread damaging wind gusts

• Potential for a long-lived derecho

• Torrential rainfall and flash flooding

• Large hail with the strongest storms

• Isolated tornadoes

Overall, this is shaping up to be a very active period of severe weather, with the greatest concerns being long-track wind damage and flooding from repeated thunderstorm complexes through Tuesday.