SEVERE STORMS IN THE SMOKE AREA

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Severe Weather Discussion

A few gusty thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley today, but the more significant severe weather threat is expected to develop tomorrow as a strong cold front sweeps southeastward from southern Ontario through the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and into the Northeast.

Thunderstorms are expected to organize into a squall line during the afternoon and evening hours. The primary hazards will be damaging straight-line winds capable of producing widespread tree damage and power outages. Embedded circulations within the line could also produce a few tornadoes.

Ahead of the main squall line, isolated to scattered supercell thunderstorms may develop in the warm, unstable air mass. If these storms remain discrete, they could produce large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes before merging into the larger line of storms.

An additional factor in this event will be the widespread wildfire smoke already in place across parts of southern Ontario, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast. Smoke may reduce visibility and contribute to poor air quality before storms arrive. As thunderstorms develop, strong winds and downdrafts may temporarily redistribute the smoke, leading to rapidly changing visibility and air quality. While smoke can influence the local environment, its exact effects on storm intensity and appearance are difficult to predict and will vary from storm to storm.

Overall, tomorrow's primary concern will be a widespread damaging wind event from southern Ontario through the Great Lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with isolated tornadoes and large hail also possible. Residents across the region should closely monitor forecasts and be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions as the front moves through.