STORMS AROUND THE RIDGE

storm-image://severe-weather-map

Severe thunderstorms will continue to develop along the northern edge, or "rim," of the strong upper-level ridge dominating the eastern United States. This is a classic midsummer pattern, with the most active weather occurring from the High Plains through the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes, and at times extending into the Northeast.

The strongest thunderstorms are expected to form near the 588-dm height contour at the 500-mb level, where the hot, unstable air along the edge of the ridge interacts with stronger winds aloft. This environment can support severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

Meanwhile, areas beneath the core of the ridge, where 500-mb heights exceed 588 dm, will remain extremely hot and relatively capped, limiting widespread thunderstorm development despite the intense heat and humidity.

This pattern is expected to persist through the next several days. By the weekend, however, the ridge should begin to weaken and shift, allowing a series of cold fronts to push farther south. As that occurs, thunderstorm activity will become more widespread across the eastern United States, bringing increasing chances for heavy rainfall and locally severe weather while gradually easing the intense heat.