VERY BAD TORNADOES

Severe Weather Map

Weather Decision Solutions Severe Weather Discussion

Weather Decision Solutions is closely monitoring the potential for another significant and dangerous severe weather outbreak today across the Central Plains. This comes on the heels of yesterday’s active tornado event, which produced numerous tornado reports from Kansas northward into Iowa. Unfortunately, atmospheric conditions remain extremely favorable for another round of intense severe thunderstorms today, and some storms could become capable of producing strong and potentially long-track tornadoes.

The greatest risk area stretches from central and eastern Kansas into portions of Nebraska, Missouri, and Iowa. Major population centers including Topeka, Kansas City, and Des Moines are all located within or near the highest tornado threat zone. Warm, humid air surging northward ahead of a powerful storm system is combining with strong upper-level winds and increasing instability to create an environment highly supportive of rotating supercell thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop during the afternoon across the Plains before becoming more widespread through the evening hours. Initially, storms are likely to remain discrete, allowing them to strengthen and rotate more efficiently. This setup raises concern for damaging tornadoes, including the possibility for a few stronger tornadoes where storms can remain isolated for an extended period of time.

In addition to the tornado threat, very large hail larger than baseball size may occur with the strongest supercells, along with destructive straight-line winds capable of causing widespread tree and power line damage. Flash flooding could also develop in areas that experience repeated rounds of thunderstorms later tonight.

As the storm system pushes eastward tomorrow, the overall tornado threat should begin to diminish somewhat, but severe weather will remain widespread from the Ohio Valley southward into portions of Texas and the southern Plains. Thunderstorms tomorrow are expected to organize more into lines and clusters, increasing the threat for widespread damaging winds and hail. Locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning will also accompany these storms.

This is expected to be the final day of the most dangerous tornado setup associated with this storm system before the pattern gradually transitions toward a broader severe thunderstorm and heavy rain threat farther east later this week.