🌊 THE POTENTIAL 40/70 STORM: OUR FIRST NOR’EASTER OF THE SEASON?
🌊 THE POTENTIAL 40/70 STORM: OUR FIRST NOR’EASTER OF THE SEASON?
Folks, we're starting to see the makings of what could become our first significant coastal storm of the season — and this one could be developing by next Wednesday.
We're watching the potential for a storm that could approach or even pass through the 40/70 benchmark, bringing heavy rain and strong winds across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
And if this system develops the way some guidance is suggesting, we could be looking at a very active stretch of weather along the Eastern Seaboard.
🌪️ A POWERFUL COASTAL STORM THREAT
The potential storm track could bring heavy rain and high winds from the Mid-Atlantic coastline through southern New England and into coastal Maine.
Areas that could experience strong winds include:
Ocean City, Maryland
Coastal New Jersey
Long Island
Southern New England
Coastal Maine
Some locations could see wind gusts reaching 50 miles per hour or higher, especially along the coastline, while heavy rainfall could create additional problems.
The exact track, intensity and timing are still uncertain, but this is a system worth watching closely.
❄️ A PREVIEW OF THE FALL AND WINTER PATTERN?
What's especially interesting is that this storm may be part of a broader pattern we're expecting to develop through the fall and continue into winter.
As I've mentioned before, we're watching the combination of a strong El Niño and a negative PDO. That combination could help produce a more active storm track along the East Coast.
If the southern jet strengthens and begins buckling into the eastern United States, we could see more coastal systems developing — and some of those storms could become major nor'easters once colder air is established.
Now, that doesn't mean every storm will become a blockbuster, but the overall setup is something we're going to be monitoring very carefully.
🌊 MORE COASTAL STORMS AHEAD?
The potential storm next week could be the first in a series of coastal systems.
There are indications that another storm could develop toward late September, and as we move into early October, we may even begin seeing signs of snow across parts of the northern Great Lakes.
That would be an early reminder that the seasonal transition is well underway.
But the timing and strength of these systems will depend on how the larger atmospheric pattern evolves.
🧊 A HIGHLY NEGATIVE PNA
Another feature we're watching is the Pacific-North American pattern, or PNA.
The PNA is expected to trend highly negative, which could support changes in the upper-level pattern and allow colder air to push farther south.
If that develops as anticipated, we could see increasing opportunities for cold air intrusions across the northern tier and eastern United States.
And when you combine colder air with an active southern jet and coastal storm development, you begin to see why the upcoming pattern could become very interesting.
🎯 HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS!
We're not in winter yet, but the atmosphere is beginning to show signs of a seasonal transition.
The potential 40/70 storm next week could be an important system to watch, not only because of its immediate impacts but also because of what it might tell us about the developing fall and winter pattern.
Could this be the first in a series of coastal storms?
Could we see another system toward the end of September?
And could early-season snow begin appearing across the northern Great Lakes in early October?
There are still plenty of questions, but the pattern is becoming increasingly active.
Hold on to your hats, folks. Things are starting to make that turn toward wintertime! 🌬️❄️
Henry Margusity
Making Weather Make Sense