STORMS ALONG THE FRONT

storm-image://severe-weather-map

Severe Weather Discussion

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along a broad frontal boundary stretching from the Midwest into the Appalachians. Forecast confidence remains somewhat challenging today, as the HRRR model appears less aggressive with thunderstorm development, while the NAM continues to indicate clusters of storms tracking along the frontal zone and producing pockets of damaging winds.

Given the warm, humid, and unstable air mass in place, any organized thunderstorm clusters that develop will be capable of producing strong to damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and torrential rainfall. Localized flash flooding may also occur where storms repeatedly track over the same areas.

The severe weather threat is expected to increase through the weekend, particularly from Pennsylvania into the Mid-Atlantic states. Thunderstorms in this region may organize into clusters or lines capable of producing wind damage and very heavy rainfall. With abundant moisture available, flash flooding could become an increasing concern, especially in urban areas, low-lying locations, and places that experience repeated rounds of storms.

Farther west, additional thunderstorms will continue from the High Plains into the Midwest. Some of these storms may become severe and produce damaging wind gusts, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall as they move eastward.

Overall, the weekend pattern favors an increasingly active corridor of thunderstorms from the High Plains through the Midwest and into the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, with damaging winds and flash flooding expected to be the primary concerns.