SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER

Storm Snowfall Map 1

We are entering a highly active severe weather pattern that will affect a large portion of the central and eastern United States through next week. The first storm system will bring multiple days of severe weather beginning today across the Plains before shifting into the Midwest on Wednesday and Thursday, and then into the eastern Ohio Valley and the Appalachian Mountains by Friday.

During this period, thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, torrential rainfall, and tornadoes. The greatest threat each day will likely be concentrated near the advancing cold front and any developing supercell thunderstorms. Given the broad geographic area involved, numerous severe weather reports are likely as storms track eastward through the week.

A brief lull may occur on Saturday before attention turns to another potentially powerful storm system developing across the central United States late in the weekend. This second system could bring another widespread severe weather episode Sunday through Tuesday as it moves from the Plains toward the Midwest and Great Lakes.

If the early-week system strengthens as projected, portions of the Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley could experience a heightened risk for damaging winds and severe thunderstorms. However, the exact magnitude and location of the most intense weather remain uncertain several days in advance and will depend on how the atmosphere evolves following the first round of storms.

Key Areas to Watch

• Today through Thursday: Plains into the Midwest.

• Friday: Eastern Ohio Valley and Appalachians.

• Sunday through Tuesday: Central U.S., Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley.

• Main threats: Damaging winds, large hail, heavy rainfall, and tornadoes.

• Additional concern: Repeated rounds of storms may increase the risk of localized flooding in some areas.